A Call to Action Minnesota – Save The SALT!

Today, I want to ask each of you to make 3 phone calls. In the next few minutes I will explain why and to who.

It matters not whether you are Democrat, Independent or Republican. I will tell you why it is urgent and assure you that it is not too late nor pointless. My Goal is to get each of you to help me “Hold the Salt.” Or perhaps better said, Save the Salt.

So what is SALT. State and Local Taxes, more specifically the exemption on federal taxes on the taxes we are already paying locally, and thereby avoiding Double Taxation.

As you know, Congress is trying to rewrite the tax code.

The current House Plan has many winners and losers. Some of the provisions, I like – others not so much. Personally, while I believe some corporate tax changes are needed, I see many things to dislike. But there is not time today to cover every detail.

But there is time to focus on one element that matters to Minnesotans and which we should ask our Representatives in Congress to advocate for us. And that is SALT.

Now before I go any further, let me assure you that our Representatives can advocate for us if they choose to do so. The bill, while formed in secrecy is now public and open for debate.

Changes can be and are being made to it.  As recent as Monday, the House leadership accepted a major change and there is every reason to believe additional changes can and should be made. (The Ways and Means committee watered down a proposed excise tax on foreign affiliates of multinational companies, raising the cost of the package by 150 Billion in lost revenue.)

But in Minnesota there are only 3 people that matter. They can choose to help us, or not. They are Representatives Jason Lewis, Eric Paulson, and Tom Emmer.

The good news is that means you only have 3 people you need to call.

So what is the issue?

By and large, Minnesota gets screwed…. Again!

Lets look at 3 things

  • What SALT removal does
  • MN tax policy and why we are different than others like Wisconsin
  • How MN does overall in the national tax policy mix.

Under current and likely future tax policy should this bill get passed in any where near its current framework about 30-35% of mostly above average income earners in Minnesota will still claim exemptions.

Why does this matter?  Our more productive citizens will get a double whammy on income paid for state and local taxes, making it harder to recruit and retain top talent, and harder to maintain MN more progressive tax posture.

 

Starting in the early 1970’s Minnesota began a committed drive to reduce the burden of property taxes.  Recognizing them as the most hated and regressive tax strategy.  It started building a series of state aids to education and local governments aimed at equalizing support for poorer school districts and reducing local goverments reliance on the property tax.  Some will remember Wendell Anderson appearing with a borrowed pike on the front of Time magazine. The Minnesota Miracle, the focus of the article celebrated that policy change. Since then, members of both parties have strengthen the effort, albeit always squabbling about the details.

Today, in contrast to Wisconsin, which has the nation’s highest property taxes for homes, Minnesota has among the lower. This high property tax level in Wisconsin, may be why Speaker Ryan of Wisconsin got a change made to the tax bill on SALT to exempt much of the property tax portion but not other SALT taxes. Good for Wisconsin, not so good for Minnesota.

Which is why we should not be afraid to ask Minnesota’s Representatives to stand up for us as well.

So why should Minnesota get special treatment? Consider this.

For every dollar Minnesota send the Feds in Income tax, we get the 2nd to the lowest return on a dollar for dollar basis. We are already a donor state. Only Delaware fairs worse.

The exclusion of the SALT deduction will only serve to perpetuate Minnesota’s plight as a taxpaying chump.

Now I do not begrudge sending Minnesota tax dollars where and when they are needed. For example, I fully support FEMA expenditures in Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico. I would point out though that when the weather gets bad in Minnesota, we call out the snow plows and pay for it ourselves. (Our winters and their cost in terms of roads is just one big reason we have higher taxes in Minnesota)

So fellow Minnesotans, heed the call, and do call. Our Representatives job is to represent Minnesota. They owe it to us to fight to protect our interests. And to those of you who lean Republican, do your guys a favor and let them know that this tax injustice is riling people up and that we will remember whether they supported Minnesota or just played dead within the Republican Caucus.

I hope each of you will take a few minutes today to make three quick calls. Just leave the recording or staffer a message that you are concerned that the elimination of SALT will hurt Minnesota businesses and people.

 

Call:       Tom Emmer 6th District  (202) 225-2331    Eric Paulson 3rd District  (202) 225-2871   Jason Lewis 2nd District  (202) 225-2271

Suggested Message: I am concerned that the loss of the SALT deduction will hurt Minnesota and its businesses. Please work to retain that deduction for Minnesota.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Blue Marble Remembered by an Earthian Worried about a Passing Cloud

Occasionally I am asked about a favorite or influential movie. I find it hard to answer as their have been many but two lesser ones occur to me today.

The first is What’s It All About Alfie.

The quintessential question. Why did God put me here?

Like most people, over my life I have answered that based on my birth circumstances.

In ninth grade, you would find me at mass every day, and also Vespers and Stations of the Cross and the entire nine yards of Roman Catholic ritual.

A half decade later, you would find me on the University of Minnesota campus, in my full dress Navy Midshipmen uniform, in an era where antiwar sentiment was hot and getting hotter.

As a Catholic, as an American my sense of purpose was wrapped up in the circumstances of my birth.

The second movie was a bit more obscure, called Stop The Earth I Want To Get Off!

While I remember nothing about the movie, I do remember its impact. Disconcerted feelings of doubt.

What if I had been born of different parents in Tehran or of Shinto parents in Japan?

How would a just and merciful God favor one over the other?

At the time, the generation gap was clearly defined.

As with many baby boomers I had seen the underbelly of America in nightly news in my youth, watching the civil rights movement giving question to the highest self image we wanted to believe our nation stood represented.

And as the Vietnam war continued other questions came to the fore.  To my generation, the US was not all it might be.

Our parents had a different view. After all, America for them was a place of pride in their own accomplishment, that of standing up to nationalist in Germany and Japan bent on world conquest. When they said they were going to “Keep the Oil” they meant it.

So the probably accurately describe Greatest Generation say America as a place of Pride. One that not only won a war, but set up institutions to keep the peace in Europe ending tens of centuries of almost constant wars.  For them the remaining ills of our society were secondary.

Thus the Boomers sought a Revolution, and our parents like Archie Bunker suggested that We Love America or Leave It.

In 1972 an image emerged.

Now they say a picture is worth a thousand words.

This picture was worth at least 4.5 billion words.

Nicknamed the Blue Marble, it was taken by
Apollo 17 on the last Moon mission.

This image was taken by the crew of the final Apollo mission as they made their way to the moon.

The image pierced through the gloom of the era. The Whole Earth, Space ship Earth, the ideal of being World Citizens, of caring for the planet and its peoples.

A sense of commonality. Humankind.

The worlds poor were our poor, the world ills our ills.  Blessed were the peacemakers.

Ronald Reagan not many years later would constantly talk of America as a Shinning City on the Hill.

His vision he described as teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here.

In recent months, a cloud has appeared overhead that has dimmed the shinning city.

A cloud of inward thinking, nationalism and exclusion.

I fear that cloud is full of lightening and capable of destructive tornadoes.

I pray that it will pass by without too much damage.

I want to believe it is just a historical artifact. Like a pause in the stock markets advance. A setback that will serve to refresh and lead to ever higher values, and that the time will soon come when we can once again build on a global dream.

In closing, let me answer Alfie’s question.  What is it all about. Accumulating wisdom, and then sharing it as effectively as possible. I hope I have done at least a little of that today.

 

 

 

Is Russia an Enemy of the United States? Who are our enemies?

Who are America’s Enemies?

Currently there are a lot of Democrats stressing that Russia is an enemy of the United States.

All of this is in reaction to President Elect Donald Trump’s apparent bromance with Vladimir Putin. His appointments have strengthened the image of his tilt to Moscow, particularly his choice for Secretary of State.

The talking heads on MSNBC and CNN appear to be leaning toward a more robustly anti Russian posture for Democrats. One that is troubling to me.

Yes, I am skeptical about Trumps pro Moscow tilt and yes, I do believe the Russian thumb on the electoral process may have tilted the scale.

But I want to stress that the enemy is not Russia, but its leadership, in the form of Trump and Tillerson’s buddy, Vlad.

Let’s not let the pain of the past election steer the Democratic party into a we against our enemies posture.

Russia under Putin is a threat.

Iran is a threat, as is China particularly in the South China Sea.

These are threats, not enemies.  Their goals, aspirations and national interest may run counter to ours. That is the realm of diplomacy, and schwerd strategies and alliances. To declare them enemies is counter productive to a goal of building a harmonious world in which our national interests can flourish.

If there is one enemy, it may well be The Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea. In their case, we still are at best in an armistice, with more than casual saber rattling  by the other side.

 

All four actors along with ISIS and the general terrorism threat all constitute challenges to the United States.

But until there is an actual act of war, they are not enemies.  ISIS is an enemy, the others something less.  And the focus should be to deal with them on a practical level, without the enemy moniker.

Trump is right that it would be great to have Russia as friend.  To ignore Putin’s encroachments and violations of international norms in the Ukraine, Syria and elsewhere is foolish on the Donald’s part.

To make Russia a rhetorical enemy, as a tool to paint Trump as bumpkin or puppet is over playing the hand.  Yes we should advocate for policies designed to counter Putin’s moves, to ensure freedom on the seas in the South China sea, and to defuse the Shiite Sunni conflict. But lets do so from a constructive framework, not that of war and enemies.

 

 

Shit Jobs for White Boys..

Lessons learned, Including … Shit Jobs for White Boys

There are many lessons to be learned in Donald Trump’s victory.

Clearly he brings a different set of values to the situation. He is shaking things up and I can’t help but try to imagine how things might end up.

It’s exciting and a little scary too.

Don’t you agree?

There can be no doubt that President’s leadership style will be emulated by tens of thousands of times,if not millions by bright energetic up and comers.

They will look to learn the lessons of the campaign.

Not the least of which is…

-You don’t have to mean, what you say…

Not if you are a leader

     …like President Trump.

What might this mean to a multi-national whose interests may vary from those of the United States from time to time?

Are we approaching Science Fiction reality TV show where the billionaire class has finally suppressed the minions?

(If so, can we pluckily survive and reverse the damage?)

What new and innovative ways will tomorrow’s leaders leverage their skills of deceit?

I shudder at the implications. It is already hard enough sorting real news from fake news

For now, we can only look at the new appointees and wonder what the repercussions they and Trumps announced policies they suggest.

It’s Hands Off,  In terms of Regulations

A – ‘do what you want, say what you need to’  style of corporate governance.

Say anything and not mean it.

That’s the corporate side. Meanwhile…

The governmental disruption appears seismic in proportion.   Many new appointments, most with a theme of disruption.

Sessions to EPA – May as well say: Let the rape of the land and plunder proceed, we just don’t believe in the EPA.

As to workers getting jobs, here’s my take.

By combining a “cut the minimum wage” Labor Secretary, with an the export workers immigration policy –  We end up with a Great New Job Victory for the Donald.  It’s 1 + 1 = 2 simple.

Clearly a great formula if your goal is … 

more shit jobs for white guys.

 

America's Workers Win Shit Jobs!
America’s Workers Win Shit Jobs!

Now who was rooting for that?  

The new job openings and newly lowered minimum wages. That’s no way to build the Middle Class.   That’s not what I voted for!

The Bigger Than $4 Billion deal…

If we we’re really looking out for jobs for the rust belt, and beyond, there are few near term solutions as powerful as the Iran Boeing deal.  The Midwest is sprinkled hundreds of machine shops who make 10-50% or more of their livelihoods as part of Boeing’s supply network.

In hindsight, I now suspect Trump’s out of the blue attack on Boeing over Air Force One was merely a smoke screen in anticipation of Iran deal. Seems he must have gone to at least one of the intelligence briefings.

By hitting Boeing over the Air force One earlier he will be less likely seen as being pro Boeing when he finds a way to claim it was his leadership and diplomacy that lead to the deal the first place.

Any doubts, be sure he will make it clear that it was true, because he said so.

The cluster effect of so many poisonous appointments, of people actively hostile to the institutions they are being charged to run, is overwhelming.

Predictions and Prayers…

I foresee near term economic success, spurred by renewed faith in the benevolent expression of concentrated wealth among individual billionaires and unleashed corporate giants.

That in turn followed by a collapse and/or unrest, a new form of gridlock and unfortunately some dire damage to our environment and posterity.

 

In the end I have to hope Trump proves to be nimble. Since he need not say what he means, he will have a lot of latitude. And given his proven ability to stray from the truth it is certainly likely some juicy surprises may yet be in store.  While it’s hard to root for a lier, I have no choice to hope he does better than I fear.

 

 

 

Enough is enough!

I was trying to wait.

Give the guy a chance, he may surprise you.

The “misstep” about Taiwan, – maybe it was not such a bad ploy after all…

Maybe it is a good idea to shake things up a little.

I didn’t think it right, but I could think it calculated and yeah I admit, I didn’t mind the US tweaking China’s nose  a bit.

But then the parade kept coming.

Appointment after appointment with scary implications.

I fear, it is time to say what I thought I would have to say…

to my Trump friends…

You’ve been snookered!

An oil industry secretary of state opposed to sanctions against Moscow, eager to play in Russia’s oil fields, a no minimum wage fast food, pay em peanuts head of the Department of Labor, no there no science here, climate denier as protector of our environmental health and a president who increasingly appears to be in Moscow’s pocket.

Ye Gads!

All the crap I didn’t want my lefty bomb throwers to throw pre election are coming true.

The bash on Trump and the fears are manifest!

God save us.

We may need divine intervention.

Putin has sold us the rope his predecessors prophesied and given us one of our greatest capitalists to do the dirty deed.

The CIA says the Kremlin helped.  How can we believe Trump to the contrary. His past statements have been euphemisms, a Billion dollar word for LIES.

Still weeks away, but doom is approaching for much of what the very people he said he would help need most.

The opportunity is however growing brighter. Surely the reality of this all will become evident even to his most loyal followers.

The Oil Industry and Billionaire Class have taken over the country. The liberal alliance with Western Europe is about to be overthrown by a new Moscow Washington axis.

The time to organize is upon us.

But who will be the champions? The Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warrens who can be proud of being ones of five who oppose otherwise bipartisan support on a Senate Bill that finally has bi-partisan support.

Should we be looking to the purist for leadership? To the Kieth Ellison’s whose idea of progress is to stake a line in the sand as far to the left as possible in the hopes of getting the center redefined a little closer to their ideals?

No, for even when the center is won, they turn around and attack those who made it happen as being to not good enough. Not pure enough.

That is hugely popular with the left’s elites, but unmarketable to those who see it as a game, and a game in which they are not players.

We need a new series of champions.

Good solid liberals with an ability to not only appeal to the left, but to the center and to those who don’t know what they believe.

Perhaps an Amy Klobuchar or a Jennifer Granholm? Others will emerge.

And the lay of the land looks as if there will be fertile ground to plow. Maybe not right away, but with these picks, it cannot be long before the wool falls away and the people see.

Unfortunately our emperor has clothes, the finest, and an eager group of Republican lackeys, but they will be among the first to scream when the budget goes as red as our presidents best friends in Moscow.

 

 

 

OPEC Cuts – What’s Happening…Background

Many observers were surprised today, when OPEC announced that it had reached a deal to cut production. The actual cuts will not start until January, but the immediate result was a significant rise in the price of oil.  US crude settled at $49.44 today, up 9.3%.

The price increase reflects a rush to hedge oil prices at what may be seen as future prices, which some are predicting to rise to the $55 to $60 level.latimes.com

OPEC Oil Ministers Meeting Image: Via latimes.com

The reason for the pre-agreement scepticism lie in the complex interrelationships among the key players. OPEC leader is clearly Saudi Arabia, which took the deal on the chin,so to speak.  They will be absorbing the biggest single cuts in the amount of half a million barrels a day.  The perceived winner is Iran which will not be required to take any cuts at all.

The big non OPEC lynchpin to this deal was the willingness of non-OPEC member Russia to agree to its own production cut of about 300,000 barrels a day. Something that previously was thought to be out of the question and which has been opposed by its major oil producing company.

Russia however, will want to see that OPEC doesn’t cheat, and OPEC will be watching to see that Russia doesn’t cheat either. The trust levels are not high.

As such the deal may still fall out of bed. Not clearly stated so far on the part of Russian is 300,000 off of what level. They have been aggressively ramping up their production of late. The answers will likely be spelled out at another set of meetings in Moscow on Dec 9.

In addition to Russia cutting its 300,000 barrels the cartel is looking for another 300,000 cut for other non-OPEC sources, just who they will be is not clear.

The complicated politics behind the deal were clearly difficult. Afterall Russia and Iran are currently engaged in not one, but two proxy wars against the Saudis, in Syria and Yemen, with Bahrain also under fire.

Iran insisted in an increase in its allotment as it is still in recovery post the ending of sanctions.

Iraq also was demanding increased allotments rather than a cut as they are engaged in a fight against ISIS. Their willingness to take a cut was perhaps the biggest surprise. They will be producing .2 million barrels less.

One factor that may explain the willingness to allow an increase to Iran, may be that some doubt it really as the current capacity to pump that much oil.  It’s infrastructure is said to be outdated and desperate for upgrades. Upgrades that seem to be hampered by internal politics that make it next to impossible for international oil companies to enter the country to provide the capital and technology needed.

One source suggests that Iran is actually shipping oil that has been in storage, accumulated during the sanctions when they were unable to ship. So while they will be allowed to ship more, some of that will have the benefit of bleeding down surplus storage that could depress the market in the future.

Perhaps the greatest reason, the Saudi’s were willing to take the biggest hit is that they are planning on capitalizing 10% of the oil they have in the ground in the near future. They plan on setting up an offering for a minority stake in ARAMCO, their state owned oil company for Trillions of dollars. The amount of which will certainly depend upon the perceived value of a barrel of oil naw and into the future.

What’s ironic about this is that part of the plan for the $trillions is to develop Saudi Arabia’s Solar industry.

It will also provide the government with ample capital to bolster its domestic needs as well as its military ability to cope with the challenges presented by a hostile Iran.


Today’s cartoon from TheWeek.com

Incendiary Action
Incendiary Action

Trump Castro Cuba

The long awaited death of Fidel Castro, has cast the initiative by Obama to work toward a normalized relationship with the one time US territory of Cuba back into the limelight.

cuba-map

I noticed a meme on Facebook that suggested that the “Left” in the US was mourning Castro.

That is of course a flat out “Fake News-ish” characterization and typical calumny the right has been fostering for some time.

The truth of the matter, it tends to be the Left that opposes human rights violations in the world, and is willing to do something about them. The Right tends to prefer the status quo and doing business with despotic rulers. This seems to be the direction, Trump is heading, if the tea leaves toward support for Putin and Syrian President Bashar Hafez al-Assad are any clue.

Now it is also true, some on the Left have pointed out that despite the horrible human rights record, authoritarian and despotic rule, the Cuban people have at least gotten a good medical and education system. Those accomplishments should not be allowed to overshadow the dark side of the Castro legacy, but only fools are unwilling to acknowledge pluses and minuses in any honest calculation.

The Kowtowing to the Old Cuban Refugee leadership with their bankrupt strategy that has failed to work for over 50 years by the Republican right is understandable – but only in terms of its rank subservience to political expediency and tradition. There can be no doubt that this Cuban electoral block has been a key bastion of votes for Republicans in the critically competitive state of Florida.

It is unfortunate that this strategy is also counter-productive to overall US national interests and the Trump administration’s goals of creating new jobs in the US.

Every other nation in the world trades with Cuba. The Embargo failed. Obama’s opening to Cuba is a far better approach. One that will build more contact, and more pressure internally for reforms.

Now as is characteristic of Trump, it seems his pronouncements to date are of the huff and puff variety. NEW YORK — While conducting another round of job interviews — including a highly public battle for secretary of State — President-elect Donald Trump again threatened Monday to terminate emerging diplomatic relations with Cuba if it does not somehow reform.

“If Cuba is unwilling to make a better deal for the Cuban people, the Cuban/American people and the U.S. as a whole, I will terminate deal,” Trump tweeted two days after the death of former Cuba leader Fidel Castro.

usatoday.comNEW YORK — While conducting another round of job interviews — including a highly public battle for secretary of State — President-elect Donald Trump again threatened Monday to terminate emerging diplomatic relations with Cuba if it does not somehow reform.

“If Cuba is unwilling to make a better deal for the Cuban people, the Cuban/American people and the U.S. as a whole, I will terminate deal,” Trump tweeted two days after the death of former Cuba leader Fidel Castro. read more at usatoday.com

The one thing Trump has going for him is the complete lack of certainty as to what he really believes and intends to do.

Just because he said something, doesn’t mean that he means it. That much has been amply proven during the campaign and its immediate aftermath.

My bet is that he finds a symbolic way to refute Obama by canceling one or another small part of the existing US-Cuban framework, and then proceeds with a slow but ongoing gradual improvement in the basic US-Cuban relationship.

He likes winning both sides of the issue, and in this case, I hope he is successful. If and only if, I am right on this point.

2016-11-28_1123

cartoon credit:

Thanksgiving Lemonade

Thanksgiving at my Michelle Bachman supporting sister’s house was nice and completely devoid of political friction. My children, some of whom dreaded the occasion and the potential for recriminations almost didn’t come. But they did, and we were able to have a wonderful time by completely ignoring, on all sides, the events of the month.

The pain is still raw, and the dashed hopes replaced with fear and more than a little apprehension.

As an oldster, I have lived through this before. An frankly that is one of the main reasons I see myself as a midwest moderate. Yes, the Bernie people had passion, but as much as they may think otherwise, their ship was doomed to hit the rocks as well.

We need centrist candidates to win. And even when we do, the outcome is not at all certain. But that is not the topic of the day.

Instead we are looking to find ways to make lemonade. We know the supreme court was the real loss of this election.

And it is a forgone conclusion that Roe vs Wade is in deep trouble. That will mean both the need, and opportunity to take the fight back to individual states. And maybe there is some weak lemonade there. Those for whom this issue is the major rallying cry, will need to regroup at the state level across the nation. I am sure they are to some extent already, but the battle front will now be back to the state houses.

It is no secret that Republicans hold sway in most. And the hope is that the renewed battle at the local level will refocus activity there and begin the process of winning back some seats in legislatures.

The stronger lemonade may be in another supreme court decision. And to the extent moderates can have any sway on the new Trump regime and on Trump himself, this should be our target. Citizens United and the peoplehood of corporations from a political contribution point of view may be a point we can win Trump over on. citizens-united

His professed dismay over the “corruption” of money in politics, “I know, I was one of them.” give me hope that a concerted effort to focus his attention on that issue may bring some discernment to the particular selection he makes to the court.

The issue will certainly come up in the confirmation process. The key is to raise the issue in advance as effectively as possible so that it influences the President Elect’s actual selection process.

I am looking for ideas on how to take the need for action in this regard and move it forward. How can we present the issue in a form and manner that will catch his eye and win his attention?

Now is certainly the time to act. And so this Thanksgiving I am grateful for the ability to act in our democratic society, even when on the losing side, again.

2016-11-26_1346

http://theweek.com/cartoons

 

The Middle East Geo & Oil Politics of Trumps Potential Revocation of the Iran Nuclear Deal

If Trump Pulls Out of the Iranian Nuclear Deal, the Middle East Could Well Implode.

Now it was clear that not everyone was happy with the Iranian Nuclear deal when it was proposed.  Mostly due to fears that the Iranians would not hold up their end of the deal.

As appears to be the rule on the right, no good can ever be expected of an enemy. They get cast as evil incarnate, unless they are seen to ride horses bare shirted – in which case they become beloved cowboys.

Confounding the nay sayers expectations, it appears that the Iranians are in fact living up to their part of the agreement. We should see this as an indication, that they can be seen as potential partners for future negotiations on any number of issues that continue to exist. We should not reject negotiations because we do not like them or their actions.

On the campaign trail, the Trump campaign often pledged that they would throw out the Iranian nuclear accord. Hopefully, this was mostly for vote getting show.

There were clearly aspects of the agreement which were not fully understood or appreciated by the general public. And as has been typical, the right has done everything they could to denigrate the deal, despite its historic accomplishment, and its strong support from the world community, with a few notable exceptions.

With any luck, Trump will back track on the stated aim of negating the treaty, and find some other way of claiming victory on the score without doing more damage. If not the consequences could be severe.

The biggest damage to my point of view is the abrogationiranian-nuclear-deal-many-partners of one administrations actions by the next and what that does to world confidence in the word of American diplomacy.

But the on the ground ramifications could dwarf that philosophical complaint.

If Tehran were to begin another arms race, it would have at its side the emerging strength of an emboldened Russia, and a new trading partner capable of providing arms and technology.

With Putin’s already muscular presence in Syria serving as a beachhead, the emergence of a bear and lion axis can only further complicate the situation on the ground.

Syria is already on fire as is Yemen to the South and a difficult situation in the Shiite majority Bahrain, ruled with Saudi support by a Sunni monarch.

The Saudi’s are already concerned that Trumps talk about restricting international oil imports will further distort the ambiguities of the oil markets.

This turmoil could weaken their ability to stand up to a resurgent Iran and set the stage for a proxy war between the US and Russia of a far greater scale than we are now experiencing in Syria.

All of this with an Iraq that stands to win against ISIS only to see the victors then split into a new religious war within its borders.

Throw in the Kurds and the soup gets thicker as in bloodier, and thekurdish-map complications more trying as they aspire a state of their own, a direct challenge to Turkey as well as whatever form a new Syria and Iraq take.

As the Kurds are also in northwestern Iran, such a move would seem to invite US support for Kurdistan against Russian, Turkish and Iranian interests. Possibly to the point of pushing Turkey into Russian and Iranian arms.

The Middle East has never been easy. Pulling the rug out from under, the one multi national agreement that actually reduced the threat of nuclear war in the area seems to be more than foolish.

Certainly not a move that can or should be entered into hastily.

 

 

Infrastructure Could Build Trumps Support on the Left

usatoday.com
photo: usatoday.com

Reports suggest that President Elect Donald Trump is considering an olive branch to Republicans in the form of nominating Mitt Romney as Secretary of State.

I suspect this overture is just a bit of showmanship, to appear as if he is willing to mollify elements of his own party. But it may be a real gesture. And if so, and if Romney was willing do the job, it could lessen the level of foreign policy apprehension.

On the domestic front, a similar effort may also be just window dressing, but would be welcome if true.

Trump was big on rebuilding the infrastructure during the campaign, even implying a $500 Billion effort may not be adequate to the job.

He points out that historic low interest rates make such an investment timely. Of course, that is what Obama and others have been saying to the deaf ears of a Congress that is more focused on the size of the national debt.

Still there is hope. Such an investment could win votes from the Democratic side of the aisle. And as such offer a chance for the Trump administrations to start their efforts with a bi-partisan win. Assuming, the Republican hardliners would avoid fouling their own nest from the get go.

In the big picture of things, I have little real hope that will happen.

Trump is also calling for increases in military spending and the end of sequestration, which was the barrier to prior infrastructure spending.

Dems wanted new revenues in the form of higher taxes to help pay for both military and domestic needs. The Republicans, lower taxes to spur growth and to use reduced rather than more spending to deal with the deficit.

Trump has proposed all of the above, except for significant lower spending. His campaign promises seem to assert continued support for Social Security and Medicare. And while he wants to cut Obama Care, the facts will likely prove that doing so, will hurt the trust fund that supports medicare more than it could save in dollars to the treasury to remove it. Especially as he maintains a desire to retain children to age 26 on their parents and the most difficult of all, the pre-existing condition conundrum.

Of my, it turns out actual policy making will prove more complicated in reality than on twitter post.

Which is all the more reason, Trump needs to support a serious move to update America’s infrastructure. If there is anywhere we need to make America great again, it is in our own roads, bridges, airports and power grid.

Now there may well be ways of thinking outside the box on some of this.

Can there be ways to use other than national debt to finance some of this?Perhaps. It may be hoping for lemonade, but a series commitment to the infrastructure would be most welcome.

http://theweek.com/cartoons/662898/political-cartoon-thanksgiving-holiday-trump-empty-promises
http://theweek.com/cartoons/662898/political-cartoon-thanksgiving-holiday-trump-empty-promises